Irrational Exuberance

Book excerpt: With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the "new economy," and the larger implications of "irrational exuberance." In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today's explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan's infamous 1996 reference, "irrational exuberance," to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller's unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing-a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.